...building a short position

This first chart taken yesterday shows my thinking on the hrly wave structure of yesterday's price action at that point, i was anticipating wave 5 completion and set an order around that level...

...and this morning the corrective abc pattern seems to be unfolding, which tends to suggest we'll see higher prices in the coming sessions, my final short for the position will be at last week's key supply level (the red horizontal line area).

Supply & Demand...

I snipped this earlier today, i missed the break down, the optimal entry being at yesterday's highs if feeling aggressive, but a high probability trade given the strength of the supply level those highs tagged.

....10hrs later and the stronger demand level (1st circle on left) created support once again for the retrace and using the price pivot entry technique there's already been a 100 pip move. Hope to be able to trade the next move like this!

Trade 3 - short again...

...i entered short last night with an initial stoploss above yesterday's high, just as well with the Asian run up. My reasons for entry included bearish hourly candles from 2 fib levels from higher TF swings and a rejection of the round number (1.4400)...this morning's hrly chart shows a short 123 developing (yet to break) from these levels.

Edit...cut my losses on an hourly close above 1.4400 just now for -54. Blog pip tally now +203.

Analysis for this week...

Price is once again at a make or break level, you can see how 1.4300 has been the line in the sand for May and June so far. This is an 8hr TF chart, you can see that the previous HA candle closed bullish and that the current candle is bullish so far but look at the RSI, the current swing is weaker than the previous swing, from June 16th lows.

For now bets are off, i'm waiting for the market to show where it wants to go next, a re-test of 1.4500 isn't that far from current price and neither is s re-test of the 1.4070's to tap the round number (1.4000)....time will tell and time to be patient, again :)

Trade 2 update 1

As you can see the position gathered momentum when the market opened on Sunday evening, i've just logged in and see price is now at former resistance, this along with the fact that the trade was taken more as a speculative 5min 'scalp', plus the RSI divergence, i've moved the stop to breakeven, which happens to be above some minor resistance.

Edit: stopped out at breakeven.

...lower risk 5min entry

Not an ideal time to open a position, but it is valid nontheless. Price is being rejected from the 61.8 and a short 123 5min pattern presented itself, i took the entry just below the RN (1.4300).

...retrace in play and waiting

The short exited at the stoploss for +257 and now we see the retrace. 3 factors to watch now, 1/. The support / resistance switch with 2/. hourly rejection price action at the 3/. 50% or 61.8% fib retracement levels. An entry around this confluence of levels would give me confidence to think that the 1.4000 level is a probable 'Big Dog' target.

...exit management

The move is showing signs of exhaustion now. I've locked in 257 pips with a final take profit, should it get there, just above 1.4000. 

...short update

A textbook run down towards the 1.4000 major level, the trade is now +315 pips with stoploss at breakeven. If only all trades were like this!

Short setup criteria met..

At 01:00 the candle closed small but bearish so i went short around the open of the next candle (yellow triangle in the chart = entry, red line = stoploss). The plan is now to give price plenty of room, even though it's up +60 or so at the moment, i won't move the stop to breakeven just yet. It's now a waiting game....

...short setup lining up

The chart shows last week's bias short through the 1.4500 level with a weekly close below. Since then price has retraced and tested 1.4500 which has so far been rejected.

I'm waiting for the current 4hr to close which on Oanda will be 01:00 (UK). I'm using Heikin-Ashi candles around entry to filter any noisy price action. If the current candle closes bearish, i'll short at the open of the next candle.